Hornmerchant's BLOG

Covid is spreading fast. I wish you, your family and loved ones be safe & healthy. We need to exercise high caution and try hard to prevent getting infected, by following good hygiene and social distancing practices. However, we also need to be financially prepared to handle the situation, if unfortunately we are infected. Covid treatment in private hospitals is costing 10-20 lakhs, depending on type of hospital and type of hospitalization (i.e., Isolation/Ventilator/ ICU). If a person in a family is infected, more often than not, whole or multiple members of the family will be infected consequently. If such infections turn out to be of moderate to high severity, hospitalization will be required. If that happens, mostly, most of us will not be able to afford private hospital expenses, out of our savings. If we spend so much, then we will become bankrupt. There will be no option but to go with Govt. provided free facilities. You know the state of those facilities as you ...

Imagine you are a sole breadwinner in the family (well, that's the case in most families in India). You haven't unfortunately made provision for emergency fund and don't have a health insurance (well, again that's the case for most Indians). You fall sick...severly sick, requiring several months of rest (personally, I have the experience of falling sick for 6+ months when I was college student) You start taking treatment & rest and don't go to work. One month passes; you manage it somehow. 2nd month your income will be severely hit or you won't get salary. You have to manage family expenses as well as cost of your treatment. You have no option but to sell your long term assets or borrow. You do one of them. By 3rd month, fortunately you start recovering. You feel much better. But you aren't cured fully yet. You mostly need another 4-6 weeks rest to fully recover.  But you are desperate to get back to work. You feel you can't afford to rest w...

There are people who say “This Time is Different” like the very same ‘boy who cried wolf’. At the same time, because it has become a cliché, there are many other people who cry “this time also is NOT any different”.   Well, that too has become a cliché! Sometimes, ignoring the cries of wolf impact them more than the ones who cry.   Many a times some wicked individuals make fake calls to scare people of ‘bomb threat’ at public places. Ignoring those calls, unlike the boy crying wolf, it is dangerous and risky of the public rather than the person faking it. The problem becomes too difficult for the people to comprehend, when both sides of the people crying foul and the people denying it are made of learned individuals and subject matter experts. Most often than not, in today’s complex world, we are exposed to such situations. Ongoing ‘Novel Corona Virus’ / ‘Covid-19’ is the same case. There are mainly two major impacts it is creating. One, the health (physiologica...

A little more than a month ago, stock markets in India and all over the world were at their all time highs. Suddenly, in a matter of few working days markets crashed at a speed that wasn’t seen before, including at the time of financial melt-down and recession of 2008-09. Until the end of first week of this month, I believed, in my life time I’ll never again see 2008-09 kind of crash. No living person then and today so far remembers experiencing any bigger stock market crash of a magnitude of 2008-09. Well, for Indians, it was the only biggest crash people have seen. In USA, something bigger had happened during ‘great depression’ of 1929, when Indian Stock Market was practically non-existent (though BSE is more than century old, there is no data, benchmark whatsoever for those dates). During 2008-09 I was still amateur investor with little money. That situation should have been much better for me, if had not done a bad financial decision just few months before the recession took enti...

Yesterday a student doing some project on Mutual Fund Performance Analysis, reached out to me for sharing my inputs. While replying to her, I felt this is in fact the matter of the title of this article – Efficacy of Performance Analysis. For me, actually this is a frequently faced question or situation, though not in exact words; clients, prospects and DIY investors seeking ‘little help’ (is that ‘DIY’?!) want a hack of choosing winners by looking at past performance. Investment comparison portals kind of make it more attractive and look easy-peasy task by giving “Star” ratings to schemes based on past performance. I am just reproducing my reply letter to her. Dear Sister, The title of your project “ Performance Analysis of selected Mutual Funds as an Investing vehicle for an Individual ” itself,   and hence the set of objectives, is put together inappropriately. Performance analysis should not be the basis (at least primary or main basis) for Mutual Funds being inv...

First, is this a slow down and what are the indicators and signs? 1. GDP has fallen sharply to 5% (against normal 7-8% and ambitious growth rate of 10%+) 2. Automobile sales have sharply dropped 3. Unemployment rate has increased 4. GST collections growth rate (@6.5%) is declining and in some months of de-growth (decline) is seen against expected 10% growth rate. 5. Private sector wages are not increasing 6. Lot of negative news about banking and financial companies 7. Bank credit growth low for long and slowing down below long-term average Ok, there are enough signs but what are the reasons? Actually these signs are reasons for one another; i.e., they are interdependent. Ironically all these bad things started because of good things. I mean the root cause of these bad things are actually the good things that were done few recent years ago. Good policies and actions by RBI and government that disrupted the "business as usual", sown the seeds of slow down...

I was giving a lecture to final year MBA students. I asked them, what are the ways of earning money. Obviously they had lot of answers. But I asked why don't they think of money earning money? They obviously guessed that I was talking about 'investing' and they agreed, yes, that's also a way. Then I asked "between you and your money who will earn more money, say after 10-15 years from now?" Everyone said, they themselves will be earning more than their money, obviously as I guessed. Leave alone students, most people, including parents of many of the students, even with decades of work experience have a situation that they earn more than their money. So, most people 'vouch for the fact' that they are better earners than their money. That's because they worked hard for money and never let their money work hard for them! I can give you many examples. Many bankers working hard for banks save their money in Bank Deposits than buying shares of t...

It is well established that separation of 'Financial Advice' and 'Financial Product Sales' is a great idea to avoid conflict of interest. Mixing both, that means advice from a product seller, may not always be unbiased. Paying fees for advice only, (where adviser gets paid by the client only and won't earn any commission or remuneration for the products he /she recommends) indeed is a great idea logically. Sometimes (rather most of the times!) we humans don't behave logically. I see three types of people: Majority - reactive people,  who need to be chased to do get them buy and renew their Insurance policies or start and keep the SIP going;  Minority - people who get the financial plan and advice by paying fees and then get too busy with their work that it keeps them postponing the implementation of plan / advice for eternity;   Rarity - proactive people who plan and implement meticulously. Financial Advisers add little value to the rare proactiv...